949 resultados para Positive and negative predictive values


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Marketers spend considerable resources to motivate people to consume their products and services as a means of goal attainment (Bagozzi and Dholakia, 1999). Why people increase, decrease, or stop consuming some products is based largely on how well they perceive they are doing in pursuit of their goals (Carver and Scheier, 1992). Yet despite the importance for marketers in understanding how current performance influences a consumer’s future efforts, this topic has received little attention in marketing research. Goal researchers generally agree that feedback about how well or how poorly people are doing in achieving their goals affects their motivation (Bandura and Cervone, 1986; Locke and Latham, 1990). Yet there is less agreement about whether positive and negative performance feedback increases or decreases future effort (Locke and Latham, 1990). For instance, while a customer of a gym might cancel his membership after receiving negative feedback about his fitness, the same negative feedback might cause another customer to visit the gym more often to achieve better results. A similar logic can apply to many products and services from the use of cosmetics to investing in mutual funds. The present research offers managers key insights into how to engage customers and keep them motivated. Given that connecting customers with the company is a top research priority for managers (Marketing Science Institute, 2006), this article provides suggestions for performance metrics including four questions that managers can use to apply the findings.

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Computer modelling promises to be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The `spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/-50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations.

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Making a decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments. In such cases, the evaluation scale for decisions should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values should be explicitly distinguished. That is what is done, for example, in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, human agents often decide on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and by focusing on the most salient arguments. In other terms, the decision process is qualitative as well as bipolar. In this article, based on a bipolar extension of possibility theory, we define and axiomatically characterize several decision rules tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative arguments in an ordinal setting. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case, and consequently suffer from poor decisive power. More decisive rules that refine the former are also proposed. These refinements agree both with principles of efficiency and with the spirit of order-of-magnitude reasoning, that prevails in qualitative decision theory. The most refined decision rule uses leximin rankings of the pros and the cons, and the ideas of counting arguments of equal strength and cancelling pros by cons. It is shown to come down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and to subsume the “Take the Best” heuristic studied by cognitive psychologists.

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Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

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The reward systemin schizophrenia has been linked to the emergence of delusions on the one hand and to negative symptoms such as affective flattening on the other hand. Previous Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) studies reported white matter microstructure alterations of regions related to the reward system. The present study aimed at extending these findings by specifically investigating connection pathways of the reward system in schizophrenia. Therefore, 24 patients with schizophrenia and 22 healthy controls matched for age and gender underwent DTI-scans. Using a probabilistic fiber tracking approachwe bilaterally extracted pathways connecting the ventral tegmental area (VTA) with the nucleus accumbens (NAcc), themedial and lateral orbitofrontal cortices (mOFC, lOFC), the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) and the amygdala; as well as pathways connecting NAcc with mOFC, lOFC, dlPFC and amygdala resulting in a total of 18 connections. Probability indices forming part of a bundle of interest (PIBI) were compared between groups using independent t-tests. In 6 connection pathways PIBI-valueswere increased in schizophrenia. In 3 of these pathways the spatial extension of connection pathways was decreased. In schizophrenia patients, there was a negative correlation of PIBI-values and PANSS negative scores in the left VTA–amygdala and in the left NAcc–mOFC connection. A sum score of delusions and hallucinations correlated positively with PIBI-values of the left amygdala–NAcc connection. Structural organization of specific segments ofwhite matter pathways of the reward systemin schizophrenia may contribute to the emergence of delusions and negative symptoms in schizophrenia.

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Computer modelling promises to. be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The 'spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/- 50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Objective: To compare the effectiveness of the STRATIFY falls tool with nurses’ clinical judgments in predicting patient falls. Study Design and Setting: A prospective cohort study was conducted among the inpatients of an acute tertiary hospital. Participants were patients over 65 years of age admitted to any hospital unit. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the instrument and nurses’ clinical judgments in predicting falls were calculated. Results: Seven hundred and eighty-eight patients were screened and followed up during the study period. The fall prevalence was 9.2%. Of the 335 patients classified as being ‘‘at risk’’ for falling using the STRATIFY tool, 59 (17.6%) did sustain a fall (sensitivity50.82, specificity50.61, PPV50.18, NPV50.97). Nurses judged that 501 patients were at risk of falling and, of these, 60 (12.0%) fell (sensitivity50.84, specificity50.38, PPV50.12, NPV50.96). The STRATIFY tool correctly identified significantly more patients as either fallers or nonfallers than the nurses (P50.027). Conclusion: Considering the poor specificity and high rates of false-positive results for both the STRATIFY tool and nurses’ clinical judgments, we conclude that neither of these approaches are useful for screening of falls in acute hospital settings.

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This study investigated the effect of self-talk in mediating between positive and negative statements made by significant others and self-esteem with children in grades 3 to 7. Students completed questionnaires on the frequency of positive and negative statements from parents, teachers, and peers. Findings suggest that self-talk does mediate between significant others' statements and children's self-esteem.

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A sample of 675 elementary school children in Grades 3-7 were administered the Self-talk Inventory and the Significant Others' Statements Inventory. The psychometric properties of both scales were investigated and the relationships between positive and negative self-talk and significant others' (parents, teachers, siblings and peers) positive and negative statements were explored using correlational and multiple regression analyses. Sex and age differences were also examined. The significant relationships and differences are described.

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It is a big challenge to guarantee the quality of discovered relevance features in text documents for describing user preferences because of the large number of terms, patterns, and noise. Most existing popular text mining and classification methods have adopted term-based approaches. However, they have all suffered from the problems of polysemy and synonymy. Over the years, people have often held the hypothesis that pattern-based methods should perform better than term-based ones in describing user preferences, but many experiments do not support this hypothesis. The innovative technique presented in paper makes a breakthrough for this difficulty. This technique discovers both positive and negative patterns in text documents as higher level features in order to accurately weight low-level features (terms) based on their specificity and their distributions in the higher level features. Substantial experiments using this technique on Reuters Corpus Volume 1 and TREC topics show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms both the state-of-the-art term-based methods underpinned by Okapi BM25, Rocchio or Support Vector Machine and pattern based methods on precision, recall and F measures.

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Positive and negative ion electrospray ionization (ESI) mass spectra of complexes of positively charged small molecules (distamycin, Hoechst 33258, [Ru(phen)2dpq]Cl2 and [Ru(phen)2dpqC]Cl2) have been compared. [Ru(phen)2dpq]Cl2 and [Ru(phen)2dpqC]Cl2 bind to DNA by intercalation. Negative ion ESI mass spectra of mixtures of [Ru(phen)2dpq]Cl2 or [Ru(phen)2dpqC]Cl2 with DNA showed ions from DNA-ligand complexes consistent with solution studies. In contrast, only ions from freeDNAwere present in positive ion ESI mass spectra of mixtures of [Ru(phen)2dpq]Cl2 or [Ru(phen)2dpqC]Cl2 with DNA, highlighting the need for obtaining ESI mass spectra of non-covalent complexes under a range of experimental conditions. Negative ion spectra of mixtures of the minor groove binder Hoechst 33258 with DNA containing a known minor groove binding sequence were dominated by ions from a 1:1 complex. In contrast, in positive ion spectra there were also ions present from a 2:1 (Hoechst 33258: DNA) complex, suggesting an alternative binding mode was possible either in solution or in the gas phase. When Hoechst 33258 was mixed with a DNA sequence lacking a high affinity minor groove binding site, the negative ion ESI mass spectra showed that 1:1 and 2:1 complexes were formed, consistent with existence of binding modes other than minor groove binding. The data presented suggest that comparison of positive and negative ion ESI-MS spectra might provide an insight into various binding modes in both solution and the gas phase.